But if you feel like it’s okay to ease up on precautions like social distancing and mask wearing, experts want you to know that you’re assessing risk all wrong. Certainly grasping the level of danger posed by the novel coronavirus has proved to be difficult for many of us. “With an infectious agent, you’re talking about a tiny particle nobody can see. People find it hard to wrap their brain around how this tiny little thing can be so risky,” says Thersa Sweet, PhD, MPH, an associate professor of epidemiology and biostatistics at Drexel University in Philadelphia. It can also be hard to fully register how someone who looks perfectly healthy might be infectious, even though people without symptoms can spread the virus. With scientists still studying coronavirus transmission, it’s not possible to quantify the exact level of risk you and your family face in different situations. But understanding the concept of risk and working to lower yours will go a long way toward keeping you safer. RELATED: How to Create a COVID-19 Social Bubble For example, we might white-knuckle our armrests during an airline flight, envisioning a crash, and then calmly drive home from the airport — even though the odds of dying in a car accident are much higher. Most of us rely too heavily on our own experiences when calculating risk, Dr. Shapiro says. “Until you almost drown, the risk of drowning doesn’t seem very great,” he explains. With COVID-19, if a friend or relative becomes very ill or dies from the virus, you probably will understand its danger better than if no one in your orbit has been affected. But in reality (assuming you haven’t been in close contact with the person who was sick, which will definitely up your danger), your anecdotal experience doesn’t alter your odds of becoming ill yourself. RELATED: Mask Wars: Which Side Are You On?
We’re Viewing COVID-19 Risk Backward
For those of us who are newly leaving our homes for work or school, it’s easy to fall into the thinking, “Since I’m already exposed, I might as well return to life as usual.” But this thinking is distorted, Dr. Sweet says, explaining that each activity carries its own risk and “one is not dependent on the other.” Aaron E. Carroll, MD, a pediatrician and professor at the Indiana University School of Medicine in Indianapolis, drew a similar conclusion in an op-ed article in August in The New York Times. “Too many view protective measures as all or nothing: Either we do everything, or we might as well do none. That’s wrong. Instead, we need to see that all our behavior adds up,” he writes, adding that if students take on more risk by being in school, they should actually increase their preventive behaviors outside of school. Similarly, people who remove their own mask when others around them aren’t wearing theirs have it backward, Sweet says: “There’s actually a higher chance they are going to infect me if they are mask-less, so I should wear mine even more vigilantly to protect myself.” RELATED: A Coronavirus Checklist: Prepare for the Possibility You May Get Very Sick
COVID Risks Are Additive — but Not Cumulative
For some medical conditions, risks are considered cumulative. Each exposure adds onto the prior one until illness results. This is how continual sun exposure eventually causes skin cancer or smoking for years leads to lung disease. With the coronavirus, cumulative exposure isn’t what makes you sick: You only need contact with the virus once. That means each high-risk activity you undertake might independently be the one that fells you. Sweet herself recently increased her own exposure, since the small graduate classes she teaches have started to meet again. She decided she will take the commuter train from her suburban home, but is mitigating the risk by wearing a high-quality mask, a face shield, and goggles. Still, if a friend asks her to eat a socially distanced lunch outside, a low-risk activity, she likely would do it. “Risk event one — taking the train — does not influence risk event two — the lunch,” she says. “Each activity must be evaluated independently.” But she certainly wouldn’t go to a bar or crowded restaurant simply because she is now taking the train. RELATED: How to Reduce COVID-19 Risk During Your Commute
Everyone’s Risk Level Is Different
The risk of contracting COVID-19 in the United States is real, with the country still averaging tens of thousands of new cases a day. But the threat varies by state and county, so in order to assess your overall risk you must take into account the transmission rate where you live. Similarly, the amount of risk you are willing to take will be influenced by your personal tolerance (some of us willingly jump out of planes; others decidedly do not). And it must take into account your odds of getting very sick if you contract COVID-19, such as whether you have underlying conditions — for example, type 2 diabetes, kidney disease, heart conditions, cancer, or obesity — that make severe disease more likely. RELATED: How Obesity May Increase the Risk for COVID-19 Complications
Understanding the Three C’s
Activities vary greatly in the amount of risk they pose. “If you go to a dry cleaner and there’s only the clerk and he’s wearing a mask, the risk is probably low,” Shapiro says. Similarly, getting packages or groceries delivered is now considered safe, despite early but now largely disproven concerns that you might easily become infected with the coronavirus by touching contaminated surfaces. Activities carrying the highest risk take into account how the coronavirus is known to spread — primarily from being near someone with the virus or from breathing air contaminated with sufficient viral load. The Florida Department of Health classifies the riskiest actions in a simple format, calling them the three C’s. They are:
Closed spacesCrowded placesClose-contact settings (such as close-range conversation)
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Lower Your Risk of Getting Sick
Unless you lock yourself in your home and never go out, some level of coronavirus risk is inevitable. But there are ways to minimize the threat:
Avoid close contact. Socialize with just a friend or two rather than with a large group, so it’s easier to social distance.Wear a mask. A model published in the Proceedings of the Royal Society in June concluded that face mask use by the public could significantly reduce the rate of COVID-19 spread and prevent further waves of the disease. An outbreak at a Starbucks in South Korea in August clearly demonstrated the value of face coverings: While more than two dozen coffee-drinking patrons became infected with the coronavirus after an asymptomatic patron visited the store, none of the four mask-wearing employees did, according to a report in Bloomberg.Ventilate rooms. If you find yourself in an enclosed indoor space such as an office, open a window or use a quality air filter.Socialize outdoors. This can dramatically cut your chances of becoming infected. Julia Marcus, PhD, an infectious disease epidemiologist at the Harvard Medical School told Vox in early September that being outside is roughly 20 times safer than being inside. “It’s just a huge prevention opportunity,” she told the news site. “We are not going to stop interacting as human beings. So let’s find ways to keep our contacts at a minimum and keep them outdoors.”
RELATED: To Lower COVID-19 Risk, Open a Window
